Starmer's Allies Begin 'Stop Andy Burnham' Effort to Prevent Mayor's Commons Re-entry
Key supporters of Labour leader Keir Starmer have reportedly kicked off a coordinated initiative to block Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Mayor of Greater Manchester, from making a comeback to the House of Commons. This move follows the stepping down of a Manchester-area MP, which has triggered an impending byelection.
Major Obstacles in the Candidate Selection Procedure
A number of figures on the Labour Party's powerful national executive committee (NEC) have apparently predicted it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to navigate the candidate selection procedure. This is primarily due to the significant number of supporters of the Prime Minister on the body who are keen to head off any potential leadership challenge.
The Labour party machine is said to have sprung into action following the revelation of the MP's intended departure, with officials and MPs raising concerns about the substantial expense and electoral danger of a subsequent mayoral race in Greater Manchester.
The Mayor's Aspirations and Internal Disquiet
Andy Burnham has made no secret of his political ambitions. Previously, he caused outrage in Downing Street and among senior ministers when he stated that numerous MPs had encouraged him to run for the party leadership.
There has long been speculation that he is aiming for a return to parliament to possibly stand for the Labour leadership if a contest to Sir Keir emerge. Nevertheless, supporters of the Mayor have warned against exaggerating the level of any planning, suggesting he is passionate about his job as mayor and would only return Westminster if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.
Current Climate and Poll Ratings
Amid polls indicating Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs despondent about Labour's fate at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham is seen as the only prominent Labour personality with favourable public approval ratings.
Should Mr. Burnham decide to run, multiple obstacles stand in his way. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the odds are stacked against him—and then secure victory in the byelection against challenges from Reform and independent candidates, all before any potential bid for the leadership.
Efforts to Block Burnham
High-ranking Labour sources have indicated that a "Block Burnham" operation is already under way, with the party's organisation being tightly controlled by key allies of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister himself said that the by-election procedure was in its "early stages" and urged his MPs to cease discussion of potential contests for the leadership.
Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's departure was confirmed, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Costs and Risks
Figures on the committee have allegedly pointed to not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could redirect around ÂŁ500,000 in party funding from other crucial elections across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.
A number of insiders also expressed fears about Reform UK attempting to win the mayoralty left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant symbolic victory for them.
Union Influence and Procedural Fears
As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to run. There is also speculation the body could enforce an women-only shortlist to prevent his candidacy.
Yet, a supporter counselled against presuming the NEC would automatically reject him, even though Sir Keir's team is largely believed to control it.
The trade unions occupy a sizable number of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are currently keeping their counsel, sources suggested they would be opposed to anything perceived as interference from Downing Street.
The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
Electoral Challenges
The constituency in question holds a sizable Labour lead. However, Reform is expected to mount a strong campaign, capitalising on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on stronger footing in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could face some pressure from independent candidates.
If Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to launch a leadership challenge, a requirement that is far from certain given he is viewed with scepticism by a number of on the backbenches.
The departing MP stated he was stepping down due to deteriorating mental health, which had made it impossible for him to continue in his role. He also remains under a parliamentary standards investigation concerning his membership in an inappropriate online group.
