Pitches, Bowling Tools and Reserves β Where the Ashes Will Be Won and Lost
Two days to go.
England's first Test in Australia starts on Friday morning.
Drawing on analysis from cricket statistics experts, we examine where the most eagerly-anticipated Ashes series in years could be won and lost.
It's tough to score runs, right?
Batsmen on each side of the Ashes rivalry might be questioning why they are bothering to show up.
Much of the build-up has centred around the apparent challenge of batting successfully, particularly for the opening match on a Perth pitch described as a "lush, challenging surface".
Regarding batting in Australia, particularly against fast bowling, no nation has been harder in which to accumulate runs over the past five years.
There are two reasons for this: wickets and cricket balls.
Taken as a collective, the surfaces prepared in Australia have been shown to be the fastest, most bouncy and among the most inconsistent in the world.
Speed and inconsistent bounce are the ideal combination for difficult batting conditions.
A long-standing narrative from English cricket paints the Kookaburra cricket ball used in this country as a ineffective weapon for a fast bowler.
An updated model of the Kookaburra was introduced six years ago, resulting in increased seam movement.
Seam bowling is a much bigger weapon than swing in Australian conditions.
Since the new Kookaburra, pace bowlers are conceding 25 runs per wicket in Australia.
Test match cricket is about solving problems.
When the ball is on top, performances of batters can be the deciding factor, and vice-versa.
Should this series be dominated by the ball, a batter could have the opportunity to be the difference between the two teams.
Whatβs happening with the Australian pace attack?
On this occasion, England have arrived in Australia with their fast-bowling unit largely intact, while the hosts are the ones hit by injuries.
Skipper Pat Cummins will miss at least the opening match with a back injury, and Josh Hazlewood is on the sidelines for an unknown period because of a hamstring injury.
Pat Cummins, Hazlewood and Starc were first united as a trio for the 2017-18 series.
Since then, they have combined to claim 81% of the wickets taken by Australia pace bowlers in matches in Australia.
The Australian team have rarely had to look elsewhere because of the effectiveness and robustness of the 'big three'.
When Australia have needed a back-up, Scott Boland has been outstanding, taking 62 dismissals in 14 Tests at an average under 17.
In addition to Scott Boland, other bowlers of the backup squad have stepped up.
Neser, Jhye Richardson and James Pattinson all average below 30 in domestic Tests.
The last time Australia went into a home match without both key bowlers, and were defeated, was in 2012.
On the last two occasions they have played at home without the pair, they have triumphed by a total of 694 runs, featuring a victory against England in Adelaide previously.
In infrequent cases Australia have had to look beyond their star fast bowlers, results have not been affected β The tourists should pay attention.
Challenging Openings
Recall the time England could not find an opener to go alongside Alastair Cook?
Sir Chef changed partners faster than Watford change coaches.
Not anymore.
Ever since Ben Duckett and Crawley were united at the England opening slot at the end of 2022, no batting partnership in the world has produced more runs together.
Their success as a partnership has been a factor in Zak Crawley being supported through some inconsistent times.
Crawley, who memorably hit the first ball of the previous Ashes for a boundary, has also been recognized as having the game for Australian conditions.
His batting average increases when the pace increases.
In comparison, the Australian opening lineup is in a ongoing change, still seeking to fill the gap left by David Warner.
After Warner's retirement at the beginning of 2024, Khawaja has walked out with five various openers in 15 matches.
Yet to debut Jake Weatherald looks set to become the sixth in 16 Tests on Friday, giving Australia an all-left-handed opening combo.
It is not just the openers that has caused problems for Australia.
Marnus Labuschagne, Australia's long-term number three, was moved to open for the WTC final, then dropped entirely.
Home performances has earned him a recall, probably back at three.
Across seven matches in the current year, Australia's top three average a collective of 25.37.
Only the opening trios of Zimbabwe and the West Indies have performed worse.
Battle of Spin
For two so evenly-matched teams, there is one area where Australia are clearly stronger β spin.
Nathan Lyon of Australia, with 562 Test wickets of him, is among the best finger-spinners to ever play.
England's Shoaib Bashir is a moderately successful selection punt, looking short of form after a broken finger, while Will Jacks is mainly a batsman.
It would seem logical for the hosts to want Nathan Lyon at the front, but bowling spin has been extremely challenging in Australia for the last decade.
During that period, spinners have averaged almost 44 in Australia, albeit Lyon's statistics largely stands up compared to the struggles of overseas spinners.
Lyon's other issue is actually bowling enough overs.
Remember the effectiveness of pace bowling?
It limits Lyon's time with ball in hand.
In the 2017-18 Ashes here, Nathan Lyon was bowling 50 overs per Test.
In the previous year, in five Tests against India, it was only half as many.
Test matches in Australia are 25% shorter since the updated ball was brought in, meaning Lyon has less space to make an impact.
Favorable Conditions?
England have a unfortunate tendency of being beaten in an away Ashes before Santa Claus has loaded his sleigh.
Traditionally, the series began in the Gabba, where they have failed to win since 1986.
Recently, that has been followed with a floodlit Test in Adelaide Oval.
England have one win in seven day-night matches worldwide, while the hosts have triumphed in 13 out of 14.
Then comes Perth, a city England have played at 14 times since 1970 and won only one time, against a depleted Australia in 1978.
On this tour, the first three stops on the tour are the identical, only in a rearranged order and under altered conditions.
The Perth Test hosts an Ashes opener for the first time, not at the famous Waca β scene of many an England humbling β but the shiny new Perth Stadium.
It is still a difficult task, though one the tourists tackle with no past burdens.
The Gabba is the venue for the second match, the day-nighter.
The most recent occasion Australia competed in a day-night Test at the Brisbane, they were surprised by West Indies.
Likewise, the Australians are now unaccustomed to playing daytime Tests at the usual day-night venue Adelaide.
In the two red-ball matches played in the Adelaide since 2014, Australia lost one, to the Indian team, in 2018.
The re-jigged schedule gives England a new opportunity at beginning an overseas series positively, though with risks.
Australia have won four out of five matches played at Perth Stadium, though the single loss came in the latest game β against India last year.
Each match at the new ground has been won by the team batting first.
England often complicate floodlit Tests, when statistics suggest the pink cricket ball does not perform much differently from its traditional red ball.
The challenge in {day-night matches|
